FUTURE Libya increasingly uncertain. A series of protests against the regime of Moamar Kadhafi since February 15 is now developing into civil war between supporters and opponents of the mengudeta ruler King Idris was on 1 September 1969. Although the war has killed more than 6,000 people, Kadhafi chose to remain in power and even swear against the demonstrators until the last drop of blood. The resignation of several ministers and ambassadors as a form of protest over cruelty Kadhafi regime that massacred the people of Libya are also unable to force him to put power. Although some military officials have defected to the opposition, Kadhafi believes that his power will not collapse because he is defended by mercenaries from Chad, Niger, and Sudan. The Kadhafi loyalists continued to fight to secure the throne of the dictator who had been held for nearly 42 years is to head off any mass action in the main cities. Misrata capture of Benghazi in Libya and the East by the opposition was not in the least dampen the step Kadhafi to continue to fight the demonstrators. Kadhafi sure the second and third largest city in Libya, it would be occupied again recall his troops managed to recapture Ajdabiya considered to open the way to Benghazi and other towns in the eastern region. Until now, the battle between two sides is still going on fiercely and showed no signs of ending. Opposition still demanding Kadhafi backward, and vice versa, the colonel insisted the opposition would not indulge. Amid such circumstances, Libya may be faced with a two-stage scenario of the future. First, military intervention by a number of countries that consider Kadhafi has violated human rights. Second, political instability if Kadhafi eventually overturned, but there is no single figure who deserves his place.
Military Intervention Signs of military intervention against Libya seemed from the UN Security Council decision to impose no-fly zone in Libya last Thursday (17 / 3). UN resolutions that condemn serious and systematic violations of human rights that have been done Kadhafi regime. The resolution also imposed sanctions against Libya arms embargo and asset freeze Kadhafi. Two days after the resolution was agreed upon, 20 French warplanes patrolling the sky city of Benghazi, U.S. warships fired at least 110 Tomahawk cruise missiles, and British fighter jets bombarded Tripoli, capital of the country which became the center of power Kadhafi. A number of other Western countries, like Canada, Norway, Denmark, and Spain, have been sending their jets to Libya. In addition, Italian air base to provide a relatively close to the Libyan territory to launch attacks. During this, the member countries the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was actually willing to launch military intervention against Libya. However, the action of these interventions are often delayed because they have no strong basis to do so. Therefore, when the UN Security Council formally issued a resolution on no-fly zone in Libya, NATO was to gain legitimacy to carry out military action if the resolution is not obeyed. Looking at it, apparently the Balkan scenario will hit Libya. In 1999, NATO launched a military intervention into the Balkans to uproot the power of the President of Serbia Slobodan Milosevic. Milosevic is accused of killing ethnic Albanians eventually dragged to the International Court for war crimes. If Kadhafi still act brutally, it is possible he suffered a similar fate with Milosevic. For Western countries, the action is relatively easy to do because support for Kadhafi so strong anymore. Moreover, they were concerned over Libya's oil resources to be easily exploited if Kadhafi fallen.
Political Instability When NATO launched a military intervention was, almost certainly would have toppled from power Kadhafi. The problem is, until now no influential figure is a reliable substitute Kadhafi. Because, during four decades in power, Kadhafi has closed all lines to power for everyone. The only major figure who is authorized to participate running power was Saif al-Islam, son who is already prepared to replace him. For years the people of Libya is only introduced to the figure of Saif as future leaders so close the opportunity emergence of an alternative figure. If Kadhafi ousted from power, almost certainly Saif expelled from Libya. Therefore, future challenges for the people of Libya is finding the right replacement figure and not be tempted to maintain constant power. Unfortunately, people power movement in Libya did not bring up an alternative leadership figures such as Egyptian revolution that led to Mohammed El Baradei and Amr Moussa. The movement is purely derived from the people below, without driven by a certain figure. The challenge of such movement models usually are united when fighting the same enemy, but scattered when no enemy who fought and trusted figure is expected to be a leader not turn up. Therefore, there is the possibility of the parties involved in the movement of power will fight each other after Kadhafi. They will consider themselves as the most meritorious Libya to free the people from the cruelty of Kadhafi. As a result, Libya after Kadhafi will experience political instability due to difficulty in choosing a trusted legitimate leader of all circles.
Military Intervention Signs of military intervention against Libya seemed from the UN Security Council decision to impose no-fly zone in Libya last Thursday (17 / 3). UN resolutions that condemn serious and systematic violations of human rights that have been done Kadhafi regime. The resolution also imposed sanctions against Libya arms embargo and asset freeze Kadhafi. Two days after the resolution was agreed upon, 20 French warplanes patrolling the sky city of Benghazi, U.S. warships fired at least 110 Tomahawk cruise missiles, and British fighter jets bombarded Tripoli, capital of the country which became the center of power Kadhafi. A number of other Western countries, like Canada, Norway, Denmark, and Spain, have been sending their jets to Libya. In addition, Italian air base to provide a relatively close to the Libyan territory to launch attacks. During this, the member countries the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was actually willing to launch military intervention against Libya. However, the action of these interventions are often delayed because they have no strong basis to do so. Therefore, when the UN Security Council formally issued a resolution on no-fly zone in Libya, NATO was to gain legitimacy to carry out military action if the resolution is not obeyed. Looking at it, apparently the Balkan scenario will hit Libya. In 1999, NATO launched a military intervention into the Balkans to uproot the power of the President of Serbia Slobodan Milosevic. Milosevic is accused of killing ethnic Albanians eventually dragged to the International Court for war crimes. If Kadhafi still act brutally, it is possible he suffered a similar fate with Milosevic. For Western countries, the action is relatively easy to do because support for Kadhafi so strong anymore. Moreover, they were concerned over Libya's oil resources to be easily exploited if Kadhafi fallen.
Political Instability When NATO launched a military intervention was, almost certainly would have toppled from power Kadhafi. The problem is, until now no influential figure is a reliable substitute Kadhafi. Because, during four decades in power, Kadhafi has closed all lines to power for everyone. The only major figure who is authorized to participate running power was Saif al-Islam, son who is already prepared to replace him. For years the people of Libya is only introduced to the figure of Saif as future leaders so close the opportunity emergence of an alternative figure. If Kadhafi ousted from power, almost certainly Saif expelled from Libya. Therefore, future challenges for the people of Libya is finding the right replacement figure and not be tempted to maintain constant power. Unfortunately, people power movement in Libya did not bring up an alternative leadership figures such as Egyptian revolution that led to Mohammed El Baradei and Amr Moussa. The movement is purely derived from the people below, without driven by a certain figure. The challenge of such movement models usually are united when fighting the same enemy, but scattered when no enemy who fought and trusted figure is expected to be a leader not turn up. Therefore, there is the possibility of the parties involved in the movement of power will fight each other after Kadhafi. They will consider themselves as the most meritorious Libya to free the people from the cruelty of Kadhafi. As a result, Libya after Kadhafi will experience political instability due to difficulty in choosing a trusted legitimate leader of all circles.